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Automation and the Future of Economics/Jobs (Spin Off of the AI thread)

Started by
138 comments, last by warhound 6 years, 5 months ago

Let me preface this by saying that everything in this discussion is predicated on the idea that we have really good automation/machine learning, but no AGI and certainly no singularity. If/when that happens, any speculation beyond a few minutes past when that happens is pointless. It's literally an outside context problem. Ok, on with the show....

5 hours ago, deltaKshatriya said:

I can see this happening briefly, which is essentially scenario 3, but I can't see this as being sustainable, simply because people would revolt, and the few at the top can't stop literally everyone else.

Yeah, they can. This isn't pre-revolutionary France, where the rich depend on other meatbags to protect them from the peasantry. This is a scenario where we have machines with inhuman strength, godlike reflexes, perfect aim and the capability to send functionally infinite combatants against hoi polloi. The plucky little band of resistance fighters don't win this one... the empire does, 'cos it's got the drones. 

The only scenario where the people win is if they somehow get control of the drones (which seems increasingly unlikely in an age of machine learning and security designed by algorithm).

"If you want a vision of the future, imagine a predator drone missile striking a human face - forever." 

Really, the only way this doesn't happen is when a few people in the 0.1% get infected with a conscience. And as unlikely as it seems, it has happened before. Slavery didn't end because the slaves revolted... it ended because some of the people who owned slaves (or could own slaves at the least) realised it was wrong.

 

 

if you think programming is like sex, you probably haven't done much of either.-------------- - capn_midnight
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Of course the "Big bad evil elite ruling forever" only works if the "big bad evil elite" are actually entirely unified in their desire to crush those under them. 

If a few of them begin to focus on a benevolent approach in an attempt to train and harness more creative minds to find some leg up over the others, then the 'big bad evil system' is readily topped: The 'lowly poor unwashed masses' end up utilizing the same tech and abilities against those who might otherwise oppress them. 

 

Plus who would want to live in an elite lifestyle that puts a target on your back and at risk of a beyond horrible death in the event of some lowly hacker finding a bad enough exploit? Sure, the odds of being a target from a hacker in general are always going to be there, but personally I wouldn't want to encourage building a world where I have billions of people wanting me dead all because I want control and power and to make their lives miserable. 

 

A core elite may end up being in control of all the technology and production, but in the long term it is probably far more effective for them to use that control to ensure healthy happy lives for the rest of humanity. Healthy and happy people are far less likely to plot your violent murder after all, and people NOT plotting your violent murder seems like a good thing in my mind.

Old Username: Talroth
If your signature on a web forum takes up more space than your average post, then you are doing things wrong.

The problem is ultimately that any autonomous robot will always either explode, run away, or attempt to conquer and enslave humanity.  The running away problem is, of course, easily solved with restraining bolts.  But there is nothing that will keep human built robots from either exploding or attempting to conquer and enslave humanity.  Humans are just terrible at building robots and that's all there is too it. Oh, wait... you mean here in the real world, don't you.  Never mind. 

;-)

 

"I wish that I could live it all again."

In India, labor is ridiculously CHEAP. You can hire an armed guard to protect your business and pay him $0.03 PER DAY. Three cents per day. To have someone standing outside your building, risking their life to protect your assets. In India, labor is SO cheap that if the thermostat for an air conditioner breaks, it is literally cheaper to pay a guy to walk into each room, hold up a thermometer for 10 minutes, and adjust the temperature manually, than to pay to replace the thermostat. So, that's what they do. A guy spends his whole day walking from room to room, holding up a thermometer to measure the room temp because he's cheaper than the $40 cost to replace a part. Here's another example: In India, it is more expensive to pay for the electricity to operate a ceiling fan than it is to have an Indian spend all day waving a fan around manually. It's mind blowing. Labor in India is so cheap that Indians who get a PhD, move to America and take on a prestigious, well paying job, can't actually function properly. Instead, these PhD's will quit their jobs and move back to India and take on jobs which pay $15/hour. Why is a PhD working for $15/hour in India instead of making 6 figures in America? Because... labor is so cheap, that these people can pay for a massive household staff to do everything for them. Laundry. Cooking. House cleaning. Child care. Everything, for pennies. The Indians just can't handle living on their own in Western countries because they don't have slave labor anymore -- so, they move back home and live a great lifestyle.

Now, you can't really have a productive discussion about automation and AI without acknowledging rock bottom wages and the impacts globalism has on labor.

My father used to visit Indonesia a lot.  He said that in Indonesia, where there is a significant population of westerners, there are drastic laws in place for dealing with automobile accidents.  This is intentional, to encourage the westerners to hire local drivers.  You can have a driver for $5-$10 per day and then, if anything happens, the driver is the one who has to go through all the hoops of getting into an accident there like being automatically arrested until things have been sorted out.  This has evolved into this due to the disparity in wealth between the westerners and the natives.

You can't compare wages in different countries.  They are different worlds that have very little to do with each other, especially economically.  And you can't make everyone equal through laws, attempting to do so results in even more inequalities than exist in a free market... and artificially setting a minimum wage just turbocharges inflation and makes everyone worse off.

"I wish that I could live it all again."

16 minutes ago, Kavik Kang said:

My father used to visit Indonesia a lot.  He said that in Indonesia, where there is a significant population of westerners, there are drastic laws in place for dealing with automobile accidents.  This is intentional, to encourage the westerners to hire local drivers.  You can have a driver for $5-$10 per day and then, if anything happens, the driver is the one who has to go through all the hoops of getting into an accident there like being automatically arrested until things have been sorted out.  This has evolved into this due to the disparity in wealth between the westerners and the natives.

You can't compare wages in different countries.  They are different worlds that have very little to do with each other, especially economically.  And you can't make everyone equal through laws, attempting to do so results in even more inequalities than exist in a free market... and artificially setting a minimum wage just turbocharges inflation and makes everyone worse off.

So...what do you think is the reason for the inequality between the 3rd world(or Global South) countries and the West? Are people there just less industrious and/or intelligent than westerners? Acts of God? Fate? Pure luck? 

Civilization.  More advanced societies have larger economies, and the people that live in them make lot more money when compared too people living in less advanced societies.  It's the laws of economics, which I am no expert in, but are pretty obvious at this level.  If a hamburger in your nation costs 10 cents, then you probably don't make $50,000 per year.  But you probably do make an amount of money that makes that 10 cent hamburger seem like it costs $5 too you.  If my father visits that country, he is effectively a billionaire there... but not here.

"I wish that I could live it all again."

Ok lot's to respond to. Here goes :D

38 minutes ago, slayemin said:

In India, labor is ridiculously CHEAP. You can hire an armed guard to protect your business and pay him $0.03 PER DAY. Three cents per day. To have someone standing outside your building, risking their life to protect your assets. In India, labor is SO cheap that if the thermostat for an air conditioner breaks, it is literally cheaper to pay a guy to walk into each room, hold up a thermometer for 10 minutes, and adjust the temperature manually, than to pay to replace the thermostat. So, that's what they do. A guy spends his whole day walking from room to room, holding up a thermometer to measure the room temp because he's cheaper than the $40 cost to replace a part. Here's another example: In India, it is more expensive to pay for the electricity to operate a ceiling fan than it is to have an Indian spend all day waving a fan around manually. It's mind blowing. Labor in India is so cheap that Indians who get a PhD, move to America and take on a prestigious, well paying job, can't actually function properly. Instead, these PhD's will quit their jobs and move back to India and take on jobs which pay $15/hour. Why is a PhD working for $15/hour in India instead of making 6 figures in America? Because... labor is so cheap, that these people can pay for a massive household staff to do everything for them. Laundry. Cooking. House cleaning. Child care. Everything, for pennies. The Indians just can't handle living on their own in Western countries because they don't have slave labor anymore -- so, they move back home and live a great lifestyle.

Now, you can't really have a productive discussion about automation and AI without acknowledging rock bottom wages and the impacts globalism has on labor.

Dude my parents are from India man. I know that place well. Cost of living in India is a lot cheaper in general. A loaf of bread is less than one dollar. I could be wrong, but as I understand it, most basic necessities in India are cheaper too. Your description of the lifestyle of many middle class and higher and well educated Indians is definitely spot on. I'm not sure how many people have gone back for precisely that reason, but some have certainly.

Absolutely the impact of globalism is worth discussing. I'd still argue that automation will ultimately trump even this mainly because a machine will usually be better than a human at most tasks in manufacturing. Plus we will only get better and generating more energy in a more cost efficient manner.

9 minutes ago, mikeman said:

So...what do you think is the reason for the inequality between the 3rd world(or Global South) countries and the West? Are people there just less industrious and/or intelligent than westerners? Acts of God? Fate? Pure luck? 

Well, since you posed this question, I'd be curious to hear your answer on it actually :P

6 hours ago, mikeman said:

There are many forms of socialism - the common factor is basically that the "means of production"(in this case, robots) are collectively and not privately owned, and goods are produced for use and not for profit.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Production_for_use

(there's a section in there - "Cybernetics" - that deals with the option of utilizing computers to assist in the allocation of resources).

This thread was started, I think, on the premise that private ownership(of the means of production of wealth again, not personal possessions like your Xbox, car and toothbrush) will start to not make much sense in the case most jobs can be automated, so I just naturally presented the alternative. :)

Well, yea, in my mind, I envisioned something along the lines of a centralized AI/algorithm that's responsible for resource allocation that no one owns (or everyone owns, depending on your perspective). It's not utopians per se, but more just that resources are allocated algorithmically based on the principles of supply and demand. At the end of the day, these are all means of allocating resources. 

6 hours ago, mikeman said:

However, I really don't think the thing will be ever as simple as "okay we have robots now, let's do Star Trek/full luxury automated communism" - for starters, let's not forget that not every country is as technologically as advanced as USA or Western countries in general.

I also got a feeling that, even if it was proven without a doubt that socialism(again - public ownership of the means of production and production for use and not profit) can handle mass automation better than capitalism, there are many many people that will shout "Better Dead than Red" and go down proudly with their Atlas Shrugged copies on hand as everything else collapses.(if we assume the current system collapses, which is the premise of the thread).

On your first point, yes, certainly not every nation enjoys the same technological standard as the US or the West. Most likely, in order to implement something like this, you'd need to have more globalized governance, which would probably take ages on its own.

On your second point, however, there definitely is a stigma around anything that even remotely sounds like Communism/Socialism. Arguably what I propose/believe to be the future isn't straight up 'everyone owns the means of production' but more that resources are allocated in a manner that guarantees a basic standard of living.

The question then arises that can humans be motivated to do things without competing with others or without a consistent material reward? Probably any automated management of economics will require that most provide some sort of service to society. Should such an algorithm allow people to essentially be dead weight? What can people do that is a): beneficial and b): self actualizing? There are a lot of questions with automated management here.

5 hours ago, Gian-Reto said:

As to moving away from capitalism... that will probably not work. Too many people actually like the system as it works today, no matter if they are profiting or not. Too many are afraid of anything new. Too many times a non-capitalistic system has failed in the past.

I'd argue that eventually capitalism in its current form will not be able to sustain automation. There will be a point when large swathes of people will find themselves out of a job. Take for example truck driving in the US. It is one of the largest professions in the US. It won't be long before it's automated. What then? What will truck drivers do?

1 hour ago, Luckless said:

Of course the "Big bad evil elite ruling forever" only works if the "big bad evil elite" are actually entirely unified in their desire to crush those under them. 

If a few of them begin to focus on a benevolent approach in an attempt to train and harness more creative minds to find some leg up over the others, then the 'big bad evil system' is readily topped: The 'lowly poor unwashed masses' end up utilizing the same tech and abilities against those who might otherwise oppress them. 

 

Plus who would want to live in an elite lifestyle that puts a target on your back and at risk of a beyond horrible death in the event of some lowly hacker finding a bad enough exploit? Sure, the odds of being a target from a hacker in general are always going to be there, but personally I wouldn't want to encourage building a world where I have billions of people wanting me dead all because I want control and power and to make their lives miserable. 

 

A core elite may end up being in control of all the technology and production, but in the long term it is probably far more effective for them to use that control to ensure healthy happy lives for the rest of humanity. Healthy and happy people are far less likely to plot your violent murder after all, and people NOT plotting your violent murder seems like a good thing in my mind.

This is a pretty good point too against most dystopian scenarios with automation. And I'd also argue that sure, while algorithms and drone might be really good at protecting an overlord, when the entire population will probably be looking for some way to crack the guy's defenses, someone will eventually do it imho.

 

No one expects the Spanish Inquisition!

Communism is, most definitely, never the right answer.  Stalin and Mao, for example, make Hitler look like an amateur when it comes to killing there own people.

As is a theme of the early timeline of my universe, the human species knows of only three basic forms of government.  Some type of king, a republic like Greece, Rome, or the United States, or the Communism of Karl Marx and Vladimir Lenin.  Given those three choices, it should be a pretty easy decision of which philosophy works best.  What today is called the "Right" is the legacy of Alexander the Great, Marcus Aurelius, and George Washington.  What is today called the "Left" is the legacy of Karl Marx, Vladimir Lenin. and Adolph Hitler.  

If robots are going to lead to communism, then we should probably burn down all the robot factories right now.

"The needs of the few, or the one, outweigh the needs of the many." - Mikhail "Kavik Kang" Reznik

;-)

"I wish that I could live it all again."

There is a very large fallacy in conflating Stalin and Mao with Communism as a whole. I don't know why everyone insists on overlooking the whole "brutal dictator thing" and then going "Well, guess it was all because of Communism..." There are more than enough entries in history books of absolute atrocities by non-communist forces. 

Old Username: Talroth
If your signature on a web forum takes up more space than your average post, then you are doing things wrong.

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